Infotrak's Mulembe Nation Poll reveals the fragmentation cost: 36% back Natembeya while 10% say no kingpin exists and voters divide 35-26-24 between opposition ruling coalition and negotiated support

Western Kenya is walking into 2027 with no majority kingpin, no dominant party, and no consensus on whether to back the opposition, the ruling coalition, or negotiate with both. In Infotrak's Mulembe Nation Poll of 602 voters across Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Busia and Trans Nzoia, the numbers are stark: only 36% rally behind George Natembeya as kingpin while 10% say they have no kingpin or are not sure. On strategy, 35% want to support the opposition, 26% favour the ruling coalition, and 24% prefer to negotiate conditional support. That is a three way split with a floating middle of nearly 40% if you add the 9% who want to stay independent and the 6% who are not sure.

During the 8 January 2026 briefing at Infotrak offices in Nairobi, The 254 Report asked the question many in Western Kenya know but rarely see in numbers: what is the cost to Western Kenya if this fragmentation persists through 2027 compared to unified regions like Mount Kenya and Rift Valley? Does the data suggest the region will bargain less effectively, lose candidate seats, or get fewer development projects?

Why National Coalitions Can No Longer Treat Western Kenya As One Unit

For decades, national coalitions have treated Western Kenya as a passive add on in presidential arithmetic. The traditional approach was simple: negotiate with one or two big names, promise a sugar factory revival, throw in a cabinet post, then wait for the votes to follow. But the Mulembe Nation Poll conducted on 29 December 2025 shows a region that has diversified its loyalties, leaders and options to the point where the uniform assumption is obsolete.

Party support is scattered: ODM leads at 25%, UDA follows at 20%, smaller parties hold 1 to 7%, while 9% support no party and 17% refuse to disclose. For president, the incumbent sits at 25% but 25% are undecided and 5% prefer not to say, meaning 30% are not aligned to any name. On kingpin, Natembeya leads at 36% but that means 64% either prefer Mudavadi at 18%, Wetangula at 14%, Oparanya at 8%, Sifuna at 5%, or have no kingpin at all.

The data shows at least three distinct camps: a pro opposition camp, a pro incumbent camp, and a large negotiator middle that behaves differently by county, age and issue.

Understanding The County By County Reality: Busia And Vihiga Are Political Opposites

The regional headlines mask sharp county level differences that make any uniform strategy impossible. Busia and Vihiga are political opposites. Busia wants to back the opposition at 53%, Vihiga wants to back the ruling coalition at 45%. Kakamega splits 37% opposition, 20% ruling, 26% negotiation. Bungoma is the most negotiation focused county at 32%. Trans Nzoia leans opposition at 41%.

On kingpin preferences, the county patterns are equally distinct:

• Vihiga gives Mudavadi 43% versus Natembeya's 26%

• Bungoma gives Wetangula 30% and Natembeya 36%

• Trans Nzoia gives Natembeya 50%

• Kakamega splits Natembeya 30%, Oparanya 17%, Mudavadi 11%, Wetangula 9%, Sifuna 9%

That is five counties, five different kingpin patterns, and 10% region wide saying none or not sure.

On issues, the county differences are just as sharp:

• Vihiga puts roads first at 39%, markets at 17%, youth employment at 12%

• Trans Nzoia wants roads at 26% and health at 22%

• Kakamega prioritises cost of living at 19%, roads at 15%, sugar at 13%

• Busia wants cost of living at 23% and roads at 20%

• Bungoma spreads across cost of living at 20%, roads at 18%, sugar at 14%, education at 13% and health at 11%

The Three Natural Anchors: Opposition Ruling And Negotiation

The poll reveals three natural anchors at the regional level: 35% opposition, 26% ruling, 24% negotiation. But within counties, these anchors become sharper and more actionable.

Busia's 53% opposition anchor is a real base that any opposition coalition can build from. Vihiga's 45% ruling anchor is equally real for the incumbent. The strategic error is to ignore these county level anchors and try to homogenise messaging across the region.

Among 18 to 26 year olds, 35% prefer opposition, 22% ruling, and 35% negotiation. Among over 55s, 33% prefer opposition, 36% ruling, 22% negotiation. That means youth are split equally between opposition and negotiation, while older voters lean ruling. Any serious campaign must recognise these age based anchors and adjust messaging accordingly.

The 24% Negotiators Plus 10% No Kingpin: Western Kenya's Decisive Segment

The most under organised segment in Western Kenya politics is the 24% who want conditional support, the 9% who want to stay independent, and the 10% who are not sure about any kingpin. That is 43% of the electorate across the region who are not locked in.

In Bungoma, 32% prefer negotiation, the highest in the region. In Kakamega, 26% prefer negotiation and 11% want to stay independent, so 37% are in the negotiator or independent column. Among 18 to 26 year olds, 35% prefer negotiation, the single largest preference for that age group tied with opposition at 35%. Youth are natural negotiators, not automatic followers.

For the negotiator segment to deliver leverage, it must be organised around clear demands: roads, markets, sugar, health, youth jobs. An organised negotiator group in Kakamega that demands specific roads and sugar outcomes could command more influence than the 20% who currently back the ruling side outright. If the 35% youth negotiators across the region could unite around roads at 33%, youth employment at 18% and education at 14%, they become the most powerful youth voting segment in Kenya.

Trading Support For Tangibles Not Rhetoric: What The Poll Says Voters Want

The poll asked what issue the Abaluhya community should prioritise most in national negotiations. The top answers were:

• Roads 21%

• Cost of living 17%

• Markets 12%

• Sugar 11%

• Health 10%

• Youth employment 9%

• Education 9%

That is 89% of respondents naming issues that can be counted, measured and tracked.

A coalition that offered Kakamega two major road upgrades, a clear sugar revival timetable, and a youth employment programme could speak directly to the 15% who want roads, 13% who want sugar, and 11% who want youth employment, totalling 39% of the county's top priorities in one package. In Trans Nzoia, a package of feeder roads, hospital upgrades and guaranteed market access would target the 26% roads, 22% health, 14% markets cluster, covering 62% of top mentions.

Infotrak noted during the briefing that poor roads inflate the cost of doing business for women and boda boda traders who struggle to move produce to markets and reach health facilities. Market access is a pain point for men. Youth unemployment hits 18 to 26 year olds hardest. The closure of sugar companies has been a long blow to household incomes. These are tangible, fixable problems, not abstract grievances.

What Western Kenya Voters Should Prioritise In Leaders To Get What They Need

The Mulembe Nation Poll shows what Western Kenya needs: roads 21%, cost of living 17%, markets 12%, sugar 11%, health 10%, youth jobs 9%, education 9%. But the 10% who say they have no kingpin and the 24% who want to negotiate suggest many voters are asking a harder question: what kind of leader can actually deliver these things, not just promise them?

Prioritise Leaders Who Can Name Specific Projects With Timelines And Budgets

When a leader or party asks for votes, voters should assess whether they can name the exact roads they will tarmac, the exact kilometres, the exact budget source, and the exact timeline. Leaders should be able to name the exact sugar mills they will reopen, the exact tonnage they expect, and the exact buyer contracts. They should be able to name the exact number of youth they will employ and in which sectors.

The poll shows roads are the top priority at 21% region wide, rising to 39% in Vihiga, 26% in Trans Nzoia, 20% in Busia and Bungoma. If a leader cannot name which roads, they are not serious. Sugar is 11% region wide, 14% in Bungoma, 13% in Kakamega. If a leader talks about reviving sugar but cannot name which of the closed factories (Mumias, Nzoia, Butali) will reopen first and under what model, they do not have a plan.

In rallies, barazas and meetings, voters should assess whether leaders present written commitments with specific routes, kilometres, budgets and timelines. The critical questions become: which roads, from where to where, how many kilometres, funded by which budget line? Leaders who carry specific proposals, not slogans, are the ones who can deliver.

Prioritise Leaders Who Understand Your County's Specific Priorities Not Regional Rhetoric

The poll reveals dramatically different county priorities:

• Vihiga wants roads 39%

• Kakamega wants cost of living 19%

• Busia wants cost of living 23%

• Trans Nzoia wants roads 26% and health 22%

• Bungoma wants cost of living 20% and roads 18%

Leaders who give the same speech in all five counties are not listening.

A voter in Vihiga whose leader campaigns on sugar revival when the top issue is roads at 39% should recognise that leader will not fight for roads in cabinet or parliament. A voter in Kakamega whose leader campaigns on generic unity when cost of living is the top concern at 19% should recognise that leader will not push for subsidies or price controls.

Voters should assess whether their MP, their governor, their party leader knows what their county's top three issues are according to data. Leaders who cannot name roads, cost of living, markets, sugar, health or youth jobs as priorities are campaigning blind. Leaders who cite poll numbers, not just vibes, are more likely to deliver.

A leader running in Busia should know that 53% of Busia voters want to back the opposition, cost of living is the top issue at 23%, and 42% see Natembeya as kingpin. A leader running in Vihiga should know that 45% want to back the ruling coalition, 39% prioritise roads, and 43% see Mudavadi as kingpin. Different counties demand different strategies and different leaders.

Prioritise Leaders Who Can Organise The 24% Negotiators And The 10% With No Kingpin

The poll shows 24% of voters region wide want to negotiate conditional support with any coalition, 9% want to stay independent, and 10% have no kingpin. That is 43% who are not locked in. Leaders who can speak to this 43% and give them a platform to name their price will win. Leaders who ignore them and chase the already committed 35% opposition or 26% ruling will lose.

The 24% negotiators are disciplined voters. They are not saying "we don't care," they are saying "show us what you will deliver and we will decide." If a leader can organise these voters into a disciplined group that demands specific outcomes on roads, markets, sugar, health and youth jobs, that group becomes the most powerful in the region because it swings the outcome.

Voters should observe how a leader campaigns. Do they spend time in youth forums, market centres, boda boda stages, asking people what they want and documenting it? Or do they just hold rallies with older supporters who are already decided? Leaders who organise negotiators hold issue based meetings, not personality rallies. They build platforms around demands, not around praise.

Bungoma has the highest negotiation preference at 32%. A leader in Bungoma who can gather that 32% into a disciplined group demanding specific roads, sugar tonnage, and youth jobs with clear accountability becomes more powerful than those who already command the committed 25% ruling or 22% opposition voters.

Prioritise Leaders Who Have Delivered Before Not Just Talked

In a region where 10% say they have no kingpin and 17% refuse to disclose their party, voters are tired of leaders who promise big and deliver small. Track records matter more than charisma.

Voters should ask critical questions about past performance: which roads has this leader built before? Which sugar mill has this leader managed or turned around? How many youth has this leader employed in their businesses, county government or organisations? Leaders with no track record on a county's priorities should not get votes just because they belong to the right sub tribe or party.

Voters can verify track records through:

• Public records of government performance

• County performance data on infrastructure delivery

• Community testimony from those who witnessed actual delivery

Leaders who campaign on roads but have never delivered a single kilometre of tarmac in their previous terms should not get votes. Leaders who campaign on youth jobs but whose own businesses employ zero youth from the region should not get votes.

Among leaders named as influential in the poll, Natembeya is recognised at 50% region wide, with 70% in Trans Nzoia. Trans Nzoia voters see him as influential likely because he was county commissioner there and because as Trans Nzoia governor he has delivered visible projects. That is a track record. Voters should assess all leaders on the same basis: what have you delivered that can be seen and counted?

Prioritise Leaders Who Can Work Across The Opposition Ruling Negotiation Split

The poll shows 35% want to back opposition, 26% ruling, 24% negotiation. That is a three way split. Leaders who can only talk to one of those three segments will deliver for one third of the region and alienate the other two thirds. Leaders who can speak to all three and commit to working with whoever delivers results are leaders who can unify the region's bargaining power.

If Western Kenya sends five MPs who are hardcore opposition, five who are hardcore ruling, and five who refuse to work together, the region gets nothing. If Western Kenya sends 15 MPs who all commit to working with whoever delivers roads, markets, sugar, health and youth jobs, the region becomes a disciplined bargaining force that every coalition must court. That is leverage.

Voters should observe how a leader talks about other leaders and other coalitions. Do they insult anyone who is not in their camp? Or do they show willingness to negotiate across political divides? Leaders who can work across the split get results. Leaders who are rigid and tribal do not.

Infotrak noted during the briefing that you can't have one alliance targeting all five counties and expect to win. The corollary is also true: you can't have one leader claiming to represent Western when 64% do not see them as kingpin. Leaders who acknowledge the split and commit to representing multiple constituencies (the 35% opposition voters, the 26% ruling voters, and the 24% negotiators) understand the region's complexity and are better positioned to deliver.

Prioritise Leaders Who Commit To Tangible Outcomes Not Positions

Many leaders campaign by seeking positions rather than committing to outcomes. That is backward. Voters should assess leaders based on outcomes first, positions second.

A meaningful commitment specifies: exact kilometres of road to be delivered, exact health centres to be built or upgraded, exact number of youth jobs to be created, with timelines and budgets attached.

A hollow commitment speaks only about wanting to serve or develop without measurable targets.

The poll shows voters know what they want: roads 21%, cost of living 17%, markets 12%, sugar 11%, health 10%, youth jobs 9%, education 9%. These are not vague aspirations. They are countable deliverables. Leaders who campaign on outcomes can be held accountable after the election. Leaders who campaign on positions cannot.

Voters should assess whether leaders can specify three concrete outcomes they commit to deliver: one road with exact route and timeline, one market with location and budget, one youth programme with target numbers. Leaders who offer this level of specificity are more likely to deliver. Leaders who speak only in generalities are not.

Kakamega prioritises cost of living at 19%, roads at 15%, sugar at 13%. A serious leader running there should commit to specific interventions like a maize subsidy that cuts unga prices by a stated percentage within a stated timeline, a named road with exact kilometres to be tarmacked within a stated period, and a named sugar mill to reopen with stated tonnage capacity within a stated timeframe. That is three tangible outcomes voters can track and verify.

Strategic Errors Western Kenya Should Avoid In 2027

Treating Mulembe Nation as one voting unit when Busia and Vihiga are 53% opposition versus 45% ruling. Every county in Western has different numbers that should inform different strategies.

Ignoring the 24% who want negotiation. They are the largest persuadable segment. If they remain unorganised, late campaign interventions with resources will likely capture them.

Over personalising politics around one kingpin when 64% do not agree on any single person. The poll shows multiple leaders with influence: Natembeya 50%, Mudavadi 32%, Sifuna 31%, Wetangula 29%. That reflects pluralism, not confusion.

Promising abstract development without linking it to the specific priorities of 21% roads, 17% cost of living, 12% markets, 11% sugar. Voters increasingly know what they want and where they want it.

Using uniform messaging for 18 to 26 year olds who lean negotiation and youth jobs and over 55s who lean ruling coalition and sugar. Age based preferences are as distinct as county based preferences.

Assuming that fragmentation equals powerlessness. Fragmentation becomes a weakness only when it remains unorganised. The data shows pathways to turn 35-26-24 into coordinated leverage.

Key Takeaways For Western Kenya Voters And Leaders

1. Fragmentation is real and measurable. The Mulembe Nation Poll shows 35% opposition, 26% ruling, 24% negotiation, 9% independent, 6% unsure. That represents five distinct paths, not one unified position. Any strategy for 2027 must start from this reality.

2. Kingpin consensus is limited. Natembeya's 36% lead still means 64% back someone else or no one. Mudavadi dominates Vihiga at 43%, Wetangula has 30% in Bungoma, Oparanya has 17% in Kakamega, and 10% say none or not sure. Multiple leaders have regional influence. No one has a monopoly.

3. County differences are decisive. Busia's 53% pro opposition versus Vihiga's 45% pro ruling is not statistical noise, it is political signal. Kakamega's 26% negotiation, Bungoma's 32% negotiation, and the 10% region wide with no kingpin represent swing voters who will determine 2027 outcomes if properly organised.

4. Issues matter more than slogans. Roads 21%, cost of living 17%, markets 12%, sugar 11%, health 10%, youth jobs 9%, education 9%. These seven issues cover 89% of voter priorities. Campaigns built around these tangible outcomes will outperform campaigns built around ethnic identity or coalition branding.

5. Negotiators represent untapped leverage. The 24% who want conditional support and the 10% with no kingpin preference represent 34% of the electorate who are not committed. If organised around clear demands on roads, markets, sugar and youth employment, they become the segment that determines the price of Western Kenya's support.

6. Leadership assessment should prioritise delivery over rhetoric. Leaders who can specify projects with timelines and budgets, who understand county specific priorities, who can organise the 24% negotiators, who have verifiable track records, who can work across the opposition ruling split, and who commit to measurable outcomes are more likely to deliver roads, markets, sugar, health and youth employment.

7. Data requires continuous updating. This poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4% at 95% confidence with 602 respondents. It provides a snapshot as of December 2025 but must be refreshed as 2027 approaches. Voter preferences will evolve based on economic conditions, coalition formations and leader performance.

Context: The Infotrak Mulembe Nation Poll And The Question That Shapes This Analysis

This analysis is based on the Mulembe Nation Poll conducted by Infotrak Research & Consulting on 29 December 2025. The poll used Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI) to survey 602 registered voters aged 18 and above across five Western Kenya counties:

• Kakamega: 197 respondents (32% of regional electorate)

• Bungoma: 148 respondents (25%)

• Busia: 96 respondents (16%)

• Trans Nzoia: 92 respondents (15%)

• Vihiga: 69 respondents (12%)

Margin of error: plus or minus 4% at 95% confidence | Response rate: 100% | Analysis software: SPSS 27

During the briefing, The 254 Report asked the question that shapes this analysis:

Infotrak's response, that you can't have one alliance targeting all five counties and expect to win, and that leaving negotiators unorganised means leaving political capital on the table, provides the starting point for understanding Western Kenya's 2027 challenge and opportunity.